Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
The market favoured No at 92% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$217k
Total volume$1.2M
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 8 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 0% |
| 8 Oct, 05:10 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 04:44 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 00:34 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 14:19 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 12:12 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 04:55 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 17:51 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 13:39 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 00:50 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 11:23 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 08:49 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 06:40 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 04:58 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 00:34 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 13:30 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 10:55 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 09:41 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 08:17 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 06:40 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 16% |
What counts
The "Yes" outcome occurs if the San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series. The "No" outcome applies if any other team wins or if the Padres are eliminated from contention. Readers often mistake the linked story about Shohei Ohtani for a direct indicator of the series winner, but only the final championship result matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →