Will Serbia call its presidential election by November 30, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 6 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 17:06 UTC | 100% |
| 2 Nov, 23:23 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 20:58 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 20:16 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 19:33 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 19:26 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 18:42 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 17:19 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 15:27 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 13:56 UTC | 97% |
| 2 Nov, 13:26 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 12:42 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 11:57 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 11:22 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 10:36 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 10:28 UTC | 97% |
| 2 Nov, 09:52 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 08:57 UTC | 97% |
| 2 Nov, 08:15 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 07:54 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Nov, 06:35 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 03:57 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 03:21 UTC | 97% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 97% |
| 2 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 97% |
| 2 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Nov, 00:12 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 23:57 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 22:46 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 15:53 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Nov, 15:24 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 14:37 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 13:02 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 11:55 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 09:35 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 09:28 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 05:47 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 03:04 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 94% |
| 1 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 94% |
| 1 Nov, 01:03 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Nov, 00:49 UTC | 94% |
| 1 Nov, 00:28 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 93% |
| 31 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 84% |
| 31 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 88% |
| 31 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 95% |
| 31 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 95% |
| 31 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 96% |
| 31 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 95% |
| 31 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 96% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 96% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 96% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 96% |
| 31 Oct, 10:59 UTC | 96% |
| 31 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 96% |
| 31 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 95% |
| 31 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 95% |
| 31 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 95% |
| 31 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 96% |
| 31 Oct, 07:39 UTC | 95% |
| 31 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 95% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Serbian authorities officially declare a specific date for the presidential election and announce it publicly by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if this formal declaration does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake a statement of intention to hold an election for an actual call, which does not count toward resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%
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