Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 7%−2
24-hour volume$89
Total volume$66k
Liquidity$32k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 21 Oct, 10:47 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 23:07 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 16:34 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 16:27 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 14:10 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 12:53 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Oct, 09:39 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Oct, 09:25 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 08:30 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 11% |
| 19 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome requires Donald Trump to issue a formal executive order, sign legislation, or direct federal agencies like the U.S. Board on Geographic Names to use the new name by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if no such official directive occurs within that timeframe.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%
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