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Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?

Resolved: No 12d ago

The market favoured No at 85% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$73k
Total volume$138k
Liquidity$29k
Resolved26 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?
0%50%100%0%21 Oct, 02:55 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
26 Oct, 05:19 UTC0%
26 Oct, 03:50 UTC1%
26 Oct, 03:06 UTC0%
26 Oct, 02:48 UTC0%
26 Oct, 02:27 UTC0%
26 Oct, 01:52 UTC1%
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25 Oct, 23:35 UTC3%
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25 Oct, 17:49 UTC2%
25 Oct, 17:17 UTC6%
25 Oct, 16:56 UTC10%
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25 Oct, 15:46 UTC16%
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25 Oct, 13:49 UTC15%
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25 Oct, 12:56 UTC13%
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25 Oct, 10:49 UTC14%
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25 Oct, 08:00 UTC14%
25 Oct, 07:39 UTC15%
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25 Oct, 05:24 UTC20%
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25 Oct, 01:08 UTC19%
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24 Oct, 23:48 UTC18%
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24 Oct, 22:33 UTC16%
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24 Oct, 20:23 UTC14%
24 Oct, 19:09 UTC25%
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24 Oct, 11:43 UTC25%
24 Oct, 09:29 UTC26%
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23 Oct, 19:27 UTC26%
23 Oct, 18:56 UTC25%
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23 Oct, 16:57 UTC23%
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23 Oct, 15:34 UTC22%
23 Oct, 15:27 UTC21%
23 Oct, 14:51 UTC23%
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23 Oct, 13:45 UTC24%
22 Oct, 17:31 UTC27%
22 Oct, 15:36 UTC28%
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22 Oct, 14:17 UTC26%
22 Oct, 13:56 UTC25%
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22 Oct, 05:53 UTC27%
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22 Oct, 00:59 UTC29%
22 Oct, 00:24 UTC27%
21 Oct, 23:49 UTC29%
21 Oct, 23:21 UTC31%
21 Oct, 19:02 UTC31%
21 Oct, 18:34 UTC31%
21 Oct, 16:51 UTC30%
21 Oct, 12:14 UTC30%
21 Oct, 02:55 UTC32%

What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Flavio Bolsonaro receives more valid votes than any other candidate from voters outside Brazil in the October 25, 2026 election. The outcome depends solely on the official vote counts reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Readers often mistake the first-round results for the final count or ignore the specific requirement that only votes cast abroad are considered.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 0%
  • No 100%

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