Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?
Implied probability 6%−3
24-hour volume$148
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves24 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 20:13 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 09:11 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Oct, 05:32 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Oct, 23:28 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 19% |
| 20 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 47% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if there is at least one full calendar day between the market's creation date and October 24 (inclusive) when no curfew is in effect anywhere within Lyon’s official municipal boundaries, measured in Lyon time.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 95%
Trade this market on Polymarket →