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Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Resolved: No 3d ago

The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$46k
Total volume$230k
Liquidity$66k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
How the odds moved · Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
0%50%100%0%30 Oct, 01:28 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
4 Nov, 01:35 UTC0%
4 Nov, 01:27 UTC1%
4 Nov, 00:58 UTC1%
4 Nov, 00:29 UTC1%
3 Nov, 23:46 UTC1%
3 Nov, 22:56 UTC2%
3 Nov, 22:12 UTC2%
3 Nov, 21:49 UTC2%
3 Nov, 21:26 UTC2%
3 Nov, 20:56 UTC2%
3 Nov, 20:12 UTC2%
3 Nov, 19:35 UTC2%
3 Nov, 19:29 UTC2%
3 Nov, 18:37 UTC2%
3 Nov, 18:29 UTC2%
3 Nov, 17:03 UTC2%
3 Nov, 16:55 UTC2%
3 Nov, 16:19 UTC2%
3 Nov, 15:57 UTC2%
3 Nov, 15:29 UTC2%
3 Nov, 14:39 UTC3%
3 Nov, 14:18 UTC3%
3 Nov, 13:55 UTC3%
3 Nov, 13:11 UTC2%
3 Nov, 12:42 UTC2%
3 Nov, 11:52 UTC2%
3 Nov, 06:30 UTC2%
3 Nov, 06:08 UTC2%
3 Nov, 02:01 UTC2%
3 Nov, 00:48 UTC2%
2 Nov, 23:51 UTC2%
2 Nov, 23:23 UTC2%
2 Nov, 22:54 UTC2%
2 Nov, 22:17 UTC2%
2 Nov, 18:49 UTC2%
2 Nov, 18:27 UTC2%
2 Nov, 17:19 UTC2%
2 Nov, 14:49 UTC2%
2 Nov, 14:03 UTC2%
2 Nov, 13:41 UTC2%
2 Nov, 12:12 UTC2%
2 Nov, 11:22 UTC2%
2 Nov, 01:17 UTC2%
1 Nov, 22:24 UTC2%
1 Nov, 20:43 UTC2%
1 Nov, 20:29 UTC2%
1 Nov, 19:02 UTC3%
1 Nov, 18:47 UTC2%
1 Nov, 18:18 UTC3%
1 Nov, 17:20 UTC2%
1 Nov, 16:58 UTC3%
1 Nov, 16:07 UTC3%
1 Nov, 13:02 UTC3%
1 Nov, 12:33 UTC2%
1 Nov, 12:09 UTC3%
1 Nov, 10:43 UTC2%
1 Nov, 10:06 UTC2%
1 Nov, 09:28 UTC2%
1 Nov, 08:25 UTC2%
1 Nov, 07:45 UTC2%
1 Nov, 05:54 UTC2%
1 Nov, 05:04 UTC2%
1 Nov, 04:57 UTC2%
1 Nov, 04:29 UTC2%
1 Nov, 03:54 UTC2%
1 Nov, 03:19 UTC2%
1 Nov, 02:50 UTC2%
1 Nov, 02:29 UTC2%
1 Nov, 01:52 UTC2%
1 Nov, 01:24 UTC2%
1 Nov, 00:56 UTC2%
1 Nov, 00:28 UTC2%
31 Oct, 23:31 UTC2%
31 Oct, 23:17 UTC2%
31 Oct, 22:57 UTC2%
31 Oct, 22:28 UTC2%
31 Oct, 21:46 UTC2%
31 Oct, 21:24 UTC2%
31 Oct, 20:57 UTC2%
31 Oct, 20:14 UTC2%
31 Oct, 19:39 UTC2%
31 Oct, 19:24 UTC2%
31 Oct, 18:55 UTC2%
31 Oct, 18:27 UTC2%
31 Oct, 17:57 UTC2%
31 Oct, 17:21 UTC2%
31 Oct, 16:29 UTC2%
31 Oct, 15:59 UTC2%
31 Oct, 15:22 UTC2%
31 Oct, 14:31 UTC2%
31 Oct, 14:16 UTC2%
31 Oct, 13:46 UTC2%
31 Oct, 13:23 UTC2%
31 Oct, 12:18 UTC3%
31 Oct, 10:59 UTC2%
31 Oct, 09:59 UTC2%
31 Oct, 09:24 UTC2%
31 Oct, 08:56 UTC2%
31 Oct, 07:39 UTC2%
31 Oct, 07:25 UTC3%
31 Oct, 06:57 UTC3%
31 Oct, 06:22 UTC3%
31 Oct, 05:47 UTC2%
31 Oct, 04:14 UTC3%
31 Oct, 03:31 UTC3%
31 Oct, 03:24 UTC3%
31 Oct, 01:53 UTC3%
31 Oct, 00:57 UTC3%
31 Oct, 00:24 UTC2%
30 Oct, 23:55 UTC2%
30 Oct, 22:54 UTC2%
30 Oct, 22:07 UTC2%
30 Oct, 21:24 UTC2%
30 Oct, 20:51 UTC2%
30 Oct, 20:15 UTC3%
30 Oct, 19:34 UTC3%
30 Oct, 18:58 UTC2%
30 Oct, 18:10 UTC2%
30 Oct, 17:56 UTC2%
30 Oct, 16:47 UTC3%
30 Oct, 14:58 UTC2%
30 Oct, 14:16 UTC2%
30 Oct, 13:42 UTC2%
30 Oct, 11:59 UTC2%
30 Oct, 11:10 UTC2%
30 Oct, 10:50 UTC2%
30 Oct, 10:28 UTC2%
30 Oct, 09:29 UTC2%
30 Oct, 08:22 UTC2%
30 Oct, 07:02 UTC2%
30 Oct, 06:56 UTC2%
30 Oct, 06:28 UTC2%
30 Oct, 05:56 UTC2%
30 Oct, 05:28 UTC2%
30 Oct, 04:43 UTC2%
30 Oct, 04:29 UTC2%
30 Oct, 03:47 UTC2%
30 Oct, 03:16 UTC2%
30 Oct, 02:55 UTC2%
30 Oct, 02:09 UTC2%
30 Oct, 01:48 UTC3%
30 Oct, 01:28 UTC3%

What counts

The Yes outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 North Carolina Senate election, including any run-offs. The No outcome applies if a Democrat or independent candidate wins. Readers often mistake the resolution deadline, but the market only closes once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification if they do not agree.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 0%
  • No 100%

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