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Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability 18%+1
24-hour volume$85
Total volume$44k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0%50%100%18%27 Oct, 21:57 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now18%
2 Nov, 09:52 UTC18%
2 Nov, 07:47 UTC18%
2 Nov, 05:31 UTC18%
2 Nov, 03:42 UTC17%
2 Nov, 03:28 UTC17%
1 Nov, 23:36 UTC17%
1 Nov, 23:29 UTC17%
1 Nov, 13:24 UTC17%
1 Nov, 11:26 UTC16%
1 Nov, 09:50 UTC17%
1 Nov, 04:01 UTC18%
1 Nov, 03:54 UTC17%
1 Nov, 03:04 UTC16%
1 Nov, 02:50 UTC16%
31 Oct, 17:42 UTC13%
31 Oct, 16:58 UTC14%
31 Oct, 16:06 UTC14%
31 Oct, 15:44 UTC13%
31 Oct, 15:22 UTC14%
31 Oct, 14:38 UTC13%
31 Oct, 13:38 UTC12%
31 Oct, 13:09 UTC13%
31 Oct, 12:54 UTC14%
31 Oct, 12:25 UTC13%
31 Oct, 11:57 UTC14%
31 Oct, 11:21 UTC14%
31 Oct, 10:06 UTC11%
31 Oct, 09:59 UTC13%
31 Oct, 09:24 UTC16%
31 Oct, 06:36 UTC13%
31 Oct, 05:19 UTC13%
31 Oct, 04:14 UTC11%
31 Oct, 03:38 UTC10%
31 Oct, 03:24 UTC10%
31 Oct, 02:54 UTC13%
31 Oct, 02:26 UTC19%
31 Oct, 01:46 UTC16%
31 Oct, 01:04 UTC17%
31 Oct, 00:57 UTC16%
31 Oct, 00:24 UTC15%
30 Oct, 23:55 UTC17%
30 Oct, 23:16 UTC24%
30 Oct, 22:47 UTC25%
30 Oct, 22:26 UTC22%
30 Oct, 21:31 UTC25%
30 Oct, 21:17 UTC23%
30 Oct, 20:51 UTC21%
30 Oct, 19:53 UTC22%
30 Oct, 19:27 UTC24%
30 Oct, 18:58 UTC23%
30 Oct, 18:18 UTC23%
30 Oct, 17:49 UTC22%
30 Oct, 17:27 UTC22%
30 Oct, 16:39 UTC22%
30 Oct, 16:10 UTC20%
30 Oct, 15:50 UTC22%
30 Oct, 15:28 UTC24%
30 Oct, 14:58 UTC24%
30 Oct, 14:23 UTC24%
30 Oct, 13:58 UTC23%
30 Oct, 13:20 UTC28%
30 Oct, 12:45 UTC29%
30 Oct, 11:10 UTC27%
30 Oct, 10:35 UTC26%
30 Oct, 10:28 UTC24%
30 Oct, 09:29 UTC22%
30 Oct, 08:41 UTC20%
30 Oct, 08:09 UTC22%
30 Oct, 07:48 UTC22%
30 Oct, 07:02 UTC21%
30 Oct, 04:01 UTC20%
30 Oct, 02:34 UTC21%
30 Oct, 01:21 UTC22%
29 Oct, 22:17 UTC18%
29 Oct, 20:16 UTC20%
29 Oct, 19:22 UTC21%
29 Oct, 18:06 UTC34%
29 Oct, 17:46 UTC31%
29 Oct, 17:26 UTC29%
29 Oct, 16:57 UTC30%
29 Oct, 16:15 UTC24%
29 Oct, 15:53 UTC23%
29 Oct, 15:22 UTC22%
29 Oct, 14:47 UTC23%
29 Oct, 14:24 UTC24%
29 Oct, 13:46 UTC25%
29 Oct, 13:29 UTC27%
29 Oct, 12:59 UTC27%
29 Oct, 12:25 UTC27%
29 Oct, 11:56 UTC27%
29 Oct, 11:20 UTC31%
29 Oct, 10:58 UTC31%
29 Oct, 10:26 UTC32%
29 Oct, 09:55 UTC33%
29 Oct, 09:19 UTC21%
29 Oct, 08:43 UTC20%
29 Oct, 08:13 UTC21%
29 Oct, 07:58 UTC28%
29 Oct, 07:26 UTC30%
29 Oct, 06:58 UTC31%
29 Oct, 05:36 UTC30%
29 Oct, 05:22 UTC30%
29 Oct, 04:56 UTC30%
29 Oct, 04:21 UTC29%
29 Oct, 02:13 UTC29%
29 Oct, 01:45 UTC30%
29 Oct, 01:09 UTC28%
29 Oct, 00:55 UTC30%
29 Oct, 00:27 UTC33%
28 Oct, 23:47 UTC30%
28 Oct, 23:26 UTC27%
28 Oct, 22:32 UTC24%
28 Oct, 22:18 UTC23%
28 Oct, 21:57 UTC25%
27 Oct, 21:57 UTC35%

Your call. How does this end?

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What counts

Alphabet must hold the third-highest total value of its outstanding shares at the end of trading on December 31, 2026, to trigger the Yes outcome. Any other company ranking higher in market capitalization results in a No outcome. Readers often mistake daily stock price movements or revenue reports for the final determination, but only the closing market cap on that specific date counts.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 18%
  • No 82%

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