Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?
The market favoured Yes at 95% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$20k
Total volume$75k
Liquidity$0
Resolved27 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 97% |
| 26 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 96% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 90% |
| 26 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 92% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 92% |
What counts
The market resolves based on who France Football officially names as the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or winner at the London ceremony on October 26, 2026. If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other". Readers often mistake the linked story about her third win for the resolution of this specific 2026 award.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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