Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$89k
Liquidity$47k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 06:21 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 22:21 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 21:19 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 17:54 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 16:46 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 15:40 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 15:11 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 14:57 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 12:47 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 11:50 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 11:27 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 10:43 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 10:08 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 09:52 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 08:56 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 07:57 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 06:27 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 05:29 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 04:51 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 04:26 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 03:54 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 03:27 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 21:54 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 20:56 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 17:37 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 17:15 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 16:36 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Alibaba wins if its model holds the highest rank among all companies listed in the market group at that specific time. Readers often mistake the resolution source for a different ranking system or miss the exact deadline and timezone.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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