Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
The market favoured No at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$108k
Total volume$140k
Liquidity$64k
Resolved3 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 13:06 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 10:13 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 09:33 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 06:55 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 03:31 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 01:54 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 01:04 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 00:25 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 23:37 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 23:08 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 18:29 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 16:58 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 13:33 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 13:18 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 26% |
| 25 Sept, 12:25 UTC | 23% |
| 25 Sept, 10:43 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 17:34 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 10:55 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 09:36 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 09:29 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 03:07 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 02:38 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 23:55 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 22:12 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 16:42 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 16:27 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 06:28 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 04:22 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 01:00 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Sept, 23:34 UTC | 11% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Max Verstappen is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA after the race concludes. The No outcome applies if any other driver finishes first according to that same official classification.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →