Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
Implied probability 38%
24-hour volume$129
Total volume$40k
Liquidity$43k
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 38% |
| 13 Oct, 15:10 UTC | 38% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if FIFA officially announces Madrid as the host city for the final before December 31, 2027. It resolves to No if FIFA names a different city or if no announcement occurs by that deadline. Readers often mistake media speculation or Netflix's broadcasting rights for an official venue selection.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 38%
- No 63%
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