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France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$32k
Total volume$516k
Liquidity$53k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
How the odds moved · France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?
0%50%100%1%20 Oct, 22:45 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now1%
27 Oct, 21:47 UTC1%
27 Oct, 21:26 UTC2%
27 Oct, 20:53 UTC1%
27 Oct, 20:17 UTC1%
27 Oct, 19:55 UTC1%
27 Oct, 18:41 UTC1%
27 Oct, 16:22 UTC1%
27 Oct, 15:49 UTC1%
27 Oct, 15:05 UTC2%
27 Oct, 14:43 UTC1%
27 Oct, 14:29 UTC2%
27 Oct, 13:48 UTC2%
27 Oct, 11:51 UTC1%
27 Oct, 11:03 UTC2%
27 Oct, 09:51 UTC2%
27 Oct, 06:49 UTC2%
27 Oct, 06:01 UTC1%
27 Oct, 05:40 UTC1%
27 Oct, 05:13 UTC2%
27 Oct, 04:13 UTC2%
27 Oct, 03:59 UTC2%
27 Oct, 03:26 UTC2%
27 Oct, 02:58 UTC2%
27 Oct, 02:16 UTC2%
27 Oct, 00:52 UTC2%
26 Oct, 22:15 UTC2%
26 Oct, 21:53 UTC2%
26 Oct, 21:25 UTC2%
26 Oct, 20:49 UTC2%
26 Oct, 20:12 UTC2%
26 Oct, 19:51 UTC2%
26 Oct, 19:23 UTC2%
26 Oct, 18:48 UTC2%
26 Oct, 18:26 UTC2%
26 Oct, 17:28 UTC2%
26 Oct, 16:24 UTC2%
26 Oct, 15:09 UTC2%
26 Oct, 14:47 UTC3%
26 Oct, 14:03 UTC2%
26 Oct, 13:30 UTC2%
26 Oct, 13:13 UTC1%
26 Oct, 11:49 UTC1%
26 Oct, 10:14 UTC2%
26 Oct, 09:46 UTC2%
26 Oct, 08:51 UTC2%
26 Oct, 05:46 UTC2%
26 Oct, 05:11 UTC2%
26 Oct, 02:27 UTC2%
26 Oct, 01:58 UTC1%
26 Oct, 01:12 UTC1%
26 Oct, 00:54 UTC1%
25 Oct, 23:35 UTC2%
25 Oct, 23:14 UTC3%
25 Oct, 22:54 UTC3%
25 Oct, 22:20 UTC3%
25 Oct, 21:29 UTC3%
25 Oct, 18:57 UTC3%
25 Oct, 17:03 UTC3%
25 Oct, 16:56 UTC3%
25 Oct, 16:21 UTC3%
25 Oct, 15:53 UTC3%
25 Oct, 15:10 UTC3%
25 Oct, 14:34 UTC2%
25 Oct, 14:27 UTC2%
25 Oct, 13:49 UTC3%
25 Oct, 13:03 UTC3%
25 Oct, 12:49 UTC3%
25 Oct, 12:10 UTC3%
25 Oct, 11:21 UTC3%
25 Oct, 10:42 UTC4%
25 Oct, 10:28 UTC5%
25 Oct, 09:58 UTC6%
25 Oct, 08:32 UTC7%
25 Oct, 07:32 UTC7%
25 Oct, 07:11 UTC7%
25 Oct, 06:05 UTC7%
25 Oct, 05:51 UTC7%
25 Oct, 05:17 UTC6%
25 Oct, 04:36 UTC7%
25 Oct, 04:05 UTC6%
25 Oct, 02:21 UTC6%
25 Oct, 01:08 UTC6%
25 Oct, 00:29 UTC4%
24 Oct, 23:48 UTC4%
24 Oct, 23:12 UTC4%
24 Oct, 22:58 UTC4%
24 Oct, 22:12 UTC4%
24 Oct, 21:51 UTC4%
24 Oct, 21:19 UTC4%
24 Oct, 20:58 UTC4%
24 Oct, 20:23 UTC4%
24 Oct, 19:44 UTC3%
24 Oct, 18:43 UTC5%
24 Oct, 18:29 UTC5%
24 Oct, 17:29 UTC5%
24 Oct, 16:47 UTC7%
24 Oct, 16:22 UTC8%
24 Oct, 14:47 UTC7%
24 Oct, 08:16 UTC9%
24 Oct, 03:42 UTC9%
23 Oct, 23:03 UTC10%
23 Oct, 21:11 UTC9%
23 Oct, 20:42 UTC11%
23 Oct, 20:28 UTC13%
23 Oct, 19:57 UTC13%
23 Oct, 19:27 UTC11%
23 Oct, 18:48 UTC10%
23 Oct, 17:53 UTC9%
23 Oct, 16:50 UTC11%
23 Oct, 16:07 UTC9%
23 Oct, 15:41 UTC9%
23 Oct, 15:06 UTC9%
23 Oct, 13:52 UTC9%
23 Oct, 13:04 UTC11%
23 Oct, 12:57 UTC10%
23 Oct, 11:55 UTC7%
23 Oct, 11:06 UTC7%
23 Oct, 05:46 UTC7%
22 Oct, 21:16 UTC7%
22 Oct, 20:55 UTC7%
22 Oct, 20:20 UTC7%
22 Oct, 19:30 UTC7%
22 Oct, 14:17 UTC7%
22 Oct, 13:34 UTC8%
22 Oct, 13:12 UTC7%
22 Oct, 12:00 UTC7%
22 Oct, 07:54 UTC7%
22 Oct, 06:46 UTC8%
22 Oct, 06:15 UTC8%
22 Oct, 05:53 UTC10%
22 Oct, 05:18 UTC13%
22 Oct, 04:41 UTC12%
22 Oct, 02:54 UTC9%
21 Oct, 23:42 UTC9%
21 Oct, 23:07 UTC10%
21 Oct, 21:55 UTC8%
21 Oct, 19:02 UTC7%
21 Oct, 14:47 UTC7%
21 Oct, 13:40 UTC7%
21 Oct, 11:45 UTC7%
21 Oct, 10:32 UTC7%
21 Oct, 10:24 UTC7%
21 Oct, 09:33 UTC8%
21 Oct, 07:56 UTC7%
21 Oct, 00:56 UTC6%
21 Oct, 00:05 UTC7%
20 Oct, 23:34 UTC7%
20 Oct, 22:45 UTC7%

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 takes effect in France by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The declaration must explicitly constitute a state of emergency as defined by that specific law; other measures like public health emergencies or states of siege do not count.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 1%
  • No 99%

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