Will Australia win?
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$34k
Liquidity$0
Resolved25 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 22 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 0% |
| 22 Oct, 13:27 UTC | 0% |
| 22 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 0% |
| 22 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 0% |
| 22 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 0% |
| 22 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 19:54 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 04:19 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 01:17 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 23:07 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 41% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Australia wins the scheduled Test match against South Africa, including any result decided by on-field tiebreaks or standard rulings like DRS. It resolves to No if South Africa wins or if the match ends in a draw.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →