Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 08:27 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 04:49 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Chinese company’s model ranks first on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at any time before December 31, 2026. The ranking uses the Text Arena Overall tab with style control off, prioritizing rank, then score, then alphabetical order. Readers often mistake the source of truth or miss that the check can happen anytime within the period, not just on the deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%
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