France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
Implied probability 5%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$35k
Liquidity$27k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 11:13 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 11:57 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 23:57 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 18:40 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 16:36 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 14:37 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 05:40 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 10:43 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 13:22 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 05:44 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 01:09 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Oct, 00:34 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 23:54 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Oct, 22:18 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 18:45 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if an authorized French government representative makes an on-the-record public statement explicitly claiming that a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if no such direct claim of deliberate intent exists from an official source within that deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%
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