Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
Implied probability 6%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$849k
Liquidity$41k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 15 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Oct, 12:37 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 7% |
| 15 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 6% |
| 12 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 7% |
| 12 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 8% |
| 12 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 18:01 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 21:36 UTC | 9% |
| 9 Oct, 21:23 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 07:03 UTC | 9% |
| 9 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 10% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if the Israeli government officially states that Iran or its proxies deliberately caused the Flydubai pilot stabbing incident by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The statement must come from an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, such as a Prime Minister or Cabinet Minister.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 95%
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