Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
The market favoured No at 86% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$185k
Total volume$194k
Liquidity$29k
Resolved8 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 1 Nov, 23:07 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Nov, 22:46 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 21:12 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 60% |
| 1 Nov, 20:29 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 19:52 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Nov, 19:16 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Nov, 18:54 UTC | 16% |
| 31 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 14% |
What counts
For the Yes outcome, Max Verstappen must finish first in the final race classification published by the FIA after the 2026 Mexican Grand Prix concludes. For the No outcome, any other driver must finish first according to that official classification.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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