Spread: Lions (-3.5)
The market favoured Lions at 52% a day out, but Panthers won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$366k
Total volume$485k
Liquidity$350k
Resolved5 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 5 Oct, 05:50 UTC | 0% |
| 5 Oct, 00:11 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 20:32 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 51% |
| 30 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 52% |
What counts
The Lions outcome occurs if Detroit wins by four points or more. The Panthers outcome applies if they win, tie, or if the Lions win by three points or fewer. Readers often mistake the margin of victory, forgetting that a three-point win still counts as a Panthers result.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Lions 0%
- Panthers 100%
View this market on Polymarket →