Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 03:30 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 02:44 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 00:27 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 23:58 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 22:47 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 21:11 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 20:35 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 18:43 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 18:28 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Nov, 17:28 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 15:14 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 14:30 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 12:24 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 11:40 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 11:12 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 10:36 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 10:29 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 09:43 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 09:28 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 08:45 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 08:03 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 07:41 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 07:13 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 01:05 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves based on where the first official, in-person diplomatic meeting between Russia and Ukraine begins by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. For the "Yes" outcome to occur, no such qualifying talks must start within this deadline. Readers often mistake indirect mediation or humanitarian-only discussions for valid peace talks, but only deliberate negotiations on substantive issues like ceasefires count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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