Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
Implied probability 1%−1
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$82k
Liquidity$29k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 19:15 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 14:03 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 08:51 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 05:36 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 04:04 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 01:12 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 19:04 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 10:21 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 08:46 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 08:00 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 06:48 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 05:57 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 03:44 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 00:50 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 17:08 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 15:41 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 09:57 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 08:00 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 06:59 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 06:25 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 04:02 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 23:27 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 21:23 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 17:31 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 16:26 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 13:27 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 12:36 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 04:55 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 02:26 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 13:40 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 03:36 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 01:17 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 20:10 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 17:39 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 15:01 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 12:53 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 12:16 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 09:25 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 6% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Kim Jong Un permanently ceases to hold his office before January 1, 2027. Temporary removals, caretaker roles, or announced resignations do not count toward this result. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of 2027, but the market resolves at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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