Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Implied probability 1%
Total volume$292k
Liquidity$68k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 13:49 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 13:27 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 18:06 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 07:59 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 21:18 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 10:44 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 00:00 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 21:11 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 20:41 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 16:12 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 14:39 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 17:19 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 12:11 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 07:46 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 07:18 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET to see which company owns the model with the highest rank. If ranks are tied, the system uses the precise arena score and then alphabetical order of company names as tiebreakers.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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