Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
The market favoured Yes at 69% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$112k
Total volume$193k
Liquidity$63k
Resolved1 Jan 2027
Why it moved: +29 points at 23:17 UTC, after The Guardian Sport: Harry Kane claims men’s Ballon d’Or to end England’s 25-year wait for winner — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Oct, 19:15 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 68% |
| 26 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 54% |
| 26 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 61% |
| 26 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 61% |
| 26 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 62% |
| 26 Oct, 13:30 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 12:47 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 66% |
| 26 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 66% |
| 26 Oct, 09:32 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 61% |
| 26 Oct, 08:30 UTC | 67% |
| 26 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 66% |
| 26 Oct, 05:46 UTC | 66% |
| 26 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 67% |
| 26 Oct, 04:50 UTC | 67% |
| 26 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 67% |
| 26 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 66% |
| 26 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 66% |
| 26 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 69% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 67% |
| 25 Oct, 13:10 UTC | 67% |
| 25 Oct, 12:03 UTC | 68% |
| 25 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 68% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 67% |
| 25 Oct, 05:57 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 69% |
| 25 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 69% |
| 24 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Oct, 23:12 UTC | 68% |
| 24 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 69% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 69% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Oct, 11:05 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Oct, 10:51 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 71% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 71% |
| 24 Oct, 03:51 UTC | 70% |
| 22 Oct, 13:34 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Oct, 05:46 UTC | 70% |
| 22 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 70% |
| 22 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Oct, 01:44 UTC | 68% |
| 22 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 69% |
| 21 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 70% |
| 21 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 70% |
| 21 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 69% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Oct, 16:01 UTC | 69% |
| 21 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 67% |
| 21 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Oct, 12:07 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 64% |
| 21 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Oct, 09:05 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Oct, 07:50 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 69% |
| 21 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 71% |
| 21 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 71% |
| 21 Oct, 03:36 UTC | 71% |
| 21 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 71% |
| 21 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 70% |
| 21 Oct, 01:45 UTC | 70% |
| 20 Oct, 21:06 UTC | 70% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 70% |
| 20 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 69% |
| 20 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 70% |
| 20 Oct, 16:34 UTC | 70% |
| 20 Oct, 16:27 UTC | 68% |
| 20 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 68% |
| 20 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 69% |
| 20 Oct, 13:53 UTC | 69% |
| 20 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 69% |
| 20 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 71% |
| 20 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 72% |
| 20 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 69% |
| 20 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 67% |
| 20 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 67% |
| 20 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 67% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Kylian Mbappé is ranked second in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or list published by France Football or UEFA. The No outcome applies if he finishes anywhere other than second place, including tied positions resolved alphabetically.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →