Hong Kong Sixes: Scotland vs Sri Lanka - Team Top Batter Draw
The market favoured No at 71% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$411
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$0
Resolved7 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 07:04 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 04:14 UTC | 30% |
| 31 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 29% |
| 31 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Oct, 21:46 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 18:51 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 53% |
| 30 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 08:16 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 07:42 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Oct, 21:14 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Oct, 19:08 UTC | 33% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 17:26 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 49% |
| 28 Oct, 16:42 UTC | 50% |
What counts
The Yes outcome applies if a Scottish player scores the most runs alone. The No outcome applies if a Sri Lankan player scores the most runs alone. Readers often mistake shared top scores for a win for one side, but these cases resolve to Draw.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →