Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?
Implied probability 4%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$111k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 20:34 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 13:17 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 07:46 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 07:16 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 12:51 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 15:06 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 12:26 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 10:12 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 07:43 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 05:15 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 04:54 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 03:28 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 02:29 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 22:18 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 16:26 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 07:35 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 06:42 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 05:15 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 04:54 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 23:54 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 22:01 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 19:01 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 18:09 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 15:07 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 10:47 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 05:31 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 01:31 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 01:10 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 21:47 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 20:03 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 18:39 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 18:08 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a human pneumonic plague case outside Russia is confirmed as linked to the Irkutsk outbreak by December 31, 2026. The link must be established by a qualifying source stating the infection came from the Irkutsk outbreak or that the patient traveled from there during the incubation period.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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