Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)
The market favoured Real Madrid CF at 59% a day out, but AEK won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$541k
Total volume$544k
Liquidity$517k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 16:35 UTC | 61% |
| 4 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 60% |
| 4 Nov, 13:53 UTC | 60% |
| 4 Nov, 12:47 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 60% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 60% |
| 2 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 57% |
What counts
Real Madrid CF wins if they win by two goals or more in regular time and stoppage. AEK wins if Real Madrid does not meet that margin. The deadline is the end of the match, and the score comes from uefa.com.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Real Madrid CF 0%
- AEK 100%
View this market on Polymarket →