Sebastian Fundora vs. Ermal Hadribeaj
The market favoured Sebastian Fundora at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$54k
Total volume$54k
Liquidity$32k
Resolved18 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 18 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 98% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 87% |
| 18 Oct, 02:31 UTC | 53% |
| 18 Oct, 02:04 UTC | 90% |
| 18 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 87% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 91% |
| 17 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 85% |
| 17 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 90% |
| 17 Oct, 21:52 UTC | 94% |
| 17 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 95% |
| 16 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 94% |
What counts
Sebastian Fundora wins if he is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ermal Hadribeaj. Ermal Hadribeaj wins if he is officially declared the winner. Readers often mistake the resolution source, which relies on official information from the governing body rather than media reports or unofficial announcements.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Sebastian Fundora 100%
- Ermal Hadribeaj 0%
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