North Carolina vs. Duke
The market favoured Duke at 59% a day out, but North Carolina won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$313k
Total volume$61
Liquidity$45k
Resolved17 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 17 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 42% |
| 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC | 43% |
| 16 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 42% |
| 15 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 43% |
| 15 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 42% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 42% |
| 14 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 41% |
What counts
The market resolves to North Carolina if they win the scheduled college football game on October 17 at 3:30 PM ET. It resolves to Duke if they win, with overtime included in the final score. Readers often mistake this for a basketball matchup because of the ACC rivalry context, but the rules specify it is a football game.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- North Carolina 100%
- Duke 0%
View this market on Polymarket →