Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 31?
Why it moved: −21 points at 23:09 UTC, after South China Morning Post: UK minister discusses tech collaboration in Greater Bay Area during Hong Kong visit — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 07:18 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 05:26 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 04:21 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 23:08 UTC | 25% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves based on the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on October 31, 2026. The outcome depends on whether that specific value falls within the range defined for 'Yes' or 'No'. Readers often mistake the resolution deadline, which is triggered by data publication or seven days after the date, rather than the end of the month.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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