Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Implied probability 0%−28
24-hour volume$290k
Total volume$541k
Liquidity$92k
Resolves28 Oct 2026
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Likud wins fewer than 20 seats in the October 27, 2026 election, and No otherwise. Seats won by a joint list or merged party count toward Likud's total. Readers often mistake the October 31, 2027 deadline for the resolution date instead of the cutoff for definitive results.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%