Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 39% |
| 7 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Nov, 06:53 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Nov, 06:25 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Nov, 05:57 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Nov, 03:59 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Nov, 02:46 UTC | 40% |
| 7 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Nov, 01:48 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 40% |
| 7 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 40% |
| 7 Nov, 00:23 UTC | 39% |
| 6 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 39% |
| 6 Nov, 23:19 UTC | 39% |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | 41% |
| 6 Nov, 22:28 UTC | 41% |
| 6 Nov, 21:52 UTC | 40% |
| 6 Nov, 21:23 UTC | 40% |
| 6 Nov, 20:46 UTC | 40% |
| 6 Nov, 20:17 UTC | 40% |
| 6 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 40% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 39% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 41% |
| 6 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 40% |
| 5 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 17:28 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 15:05 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 14:47 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Nov, 14:00 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Nov, 13:52 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Nov, 13:23 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Nov, 12:59 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Nov, 12:14 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Nov, 10:17 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Nov, 08:58 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Nov, 08:58 UTC | 56% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves based on which AI lab holds the second-highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Readers often mistake the source of truth for general news reports or other benchmarks instead of the specific arena.ai page with style control enabled. Models labeled as “AutoEval” do not count toward the ranking regardless of their displayed score.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 39%
- No 61%
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