Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
Implied probability 27%−4
24-hour volume$378
Total volume$46k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 27% |
| 27 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 27% |
| 27 Sept, 15:52 UTC | 26% |
| 27 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 28% |
| 27 Sept, 14:45 UTC | 26% |
| 27 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 26% |
| 27 Sept, 13:55 UTC | 27% |
| 27 Sept, 13:29 UTC | 26% |
| 27 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 26% |
| 27 Sept, 12:21 UTC | 26% |
| 27 Sept, 11:33 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Sept, 10:51 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Sept, 10:15 UTC | 18% |
| 27 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 18% |
| 27 Sept, 08:01 UTC | 21% |
| 27 Sept, 07:55 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 24% |
| 27 Sept, 05:57 UTC | 26% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 27% |
| 27 Sept, 03:53 UTC | 28% |
| 27 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 28% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 29% |
| 27 Sept, 00:42 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 20:20 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Sept, 17:14 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 32% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 32% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 35% |
| 26 Sept, 10:13 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Sept, 04:01 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 03:38 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Sept, 03:23 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Sept, 02:32 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Sept, 02:24 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Sept, 01:54 UTC | 27% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if any Meta model reaches at least 55% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The result depends solely on the HLE Accuracy metric shown on the official leaderboard at agi.safe.ai. Readers often mistake other performance metrics or unrelated Meta announcements for the required score.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 27%
- No 74%
Trade this market on Polymarket →