Will Las Vegas Aces win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
The market favoured No at 90% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$113k
Liquidity$0
Resolved15 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 10 Oct, 06:06 UTC | 0% |
| 10 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 0% |
| 10 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 12% |
| 10 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Oct, 02:26 UTC | 12% |
| 10 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 11% |
| 9 Oct, 23:59 UTC | 11% |
| 9 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 10% |
| 9 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 11% |
| 9 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 12% |
| 9 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 12% |
| 9 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 10% |
| 9 Oct, 00:30 UTC | 11% |
| 9 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 10% |
| 8 Oct, 23:56 UTC | 10% |
| 8 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 10% |
| 8 Oct, 20:54 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 10% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 14:44 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 09:02 UTC | 6% |
| 8 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 6% |
| 8 Oct, 04:23 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 10% |
| 8 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 12% |
| 8 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 12% |
| 8 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 20% |
| 8 Oct, 01:01 UTC | 20% |
| 8 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 22% |
| 7 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 23% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 24% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 22% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 22% |
| 6 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 22:01 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 19:06 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 01:03 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 19:00 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 16:18 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 09:02 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 06:07 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Oct, 04:45 UTC | 34% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Las Vegas Aces are officially named the 2026 WNBA champions. The No outcome applies if they lose in the playoffs, if the season is cancelled or postponed past November 14, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, or if another team wins. Readers often mistake a playoff win for a championship victory, but only the final title matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →