Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
The market favoured No at 87% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$164k
Total volume$215k
Liquidity$96k
Resolved3 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 10:13 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Sept, 06:25 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 23:15 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 22:16 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 21:48 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 20:25 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 18:29 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 16:37 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 15:57 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 14:46 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 13:11 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Sept, 12:25 UTC | 26% |
| 25 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 38% |
| 25 Sept, 10:57 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Sept, 10:04 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 41% |
| 25 Sept, 09:17 UTC | 41% |
| 25 Sept, 07:35 UTC | 42% |
| 25 Sept, 05:49 UTC | 42% |
| 25 Sept, 00:27 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 22:31 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 19:17 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 17:42 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 11:34 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 09:00 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 08:36 UTC | 42% |
| 24 Sept, 08:29 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Sept, 17:39 UTC | 42% |
| 22 Sept, 08:56 UTC | 41% |
What counts
Yes resolves if Kimi Antonelli is officially listed as first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA after the race. No resolves if any other driver holds that top spot in the same official classification. Readers often mistake the podium ceremony order or post-race disqualifications for the final result, but only the FIA's published classification counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →