Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$27k
Liquidity$39k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:05 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 00:15 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 20:49 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 19:42 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 19:06 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 17:03 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 16:26 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 12:00 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 11:59 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The 'Yes' outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 Illinois U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The 'No' outcome applies if a Democrat or independent candidate wins. Readers often mistake the deadline for the final certification date instead of the moment when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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