Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Implied probability 54%+16
24-hour volume$14k
Total volume$90k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves5 Nov 2026
Why it moved: +22 points at 10:22 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Lula Victory Adds to Brazil Farm Angst as Defaults Hit Record — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 54% |
| 4 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 42% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Nov, 23:10 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Nov, 19:14 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Nov, 10:22 UTC | 38% |
| 29 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 17% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 18% |
| 28 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 18% |
| 28 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 19% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 18% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 18% |
| 28 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 21% |
| 28 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Oct, 15:26 UTC | 17% |
| 28 Oct, 14:56 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 12:04 UTC | 20% |
| 28 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 23% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome requires Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to win the Brazilian presidential runoff, Gadi Eizenkot to become Israel's next Prime Minister, and Democrats to control the US Senate after the November 2026 midterm elections. The No outcome occurs if any one of these three specific conditions fails to happen.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 54%
- No 46%
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