Patriots vs. Bills
The market favoured Bills at 75% a day out, but Patriots won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$3.3M
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$55k
Resolved4 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 22:33 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 27% |
What counts
The Patriots outcome resolves if they win the scheduled NFL game on October 4 at 1:00 PM ET. The Bills outcome resolves if they win that same game. Readers often mistake the resolution deadline, which is based on the official game result rather than the news headline about player injuries.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Patriots 100%
- Bills 0%
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