Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?
Implied probability 2%−1
24-hour volume$50
Total volume$51k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 17 Oct, 13:09 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Oct, 12:20 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 02:04 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 23:30 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 06:50 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 17:18 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 12:51 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 17:39 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 7% |
| 13 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 7% |
| 13 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 7% |
| 13 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 7% |
| 12 Oct, 23:54 UTC | 7% |
| 12 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 7% |
| 12 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 6% |
| 12 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 21:26 UTC | 6% |
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What counts
A new pneumonic plague case in Russia must be confirmed by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Moscow time for the "Yes" outcome. The confirmation must come from official Russian health authorities or the WHO, and it must not involve the previously reported death of a lab worker in Irkutsk. Readers often mistakenly think that any plague-related news counts, but only explicitly confirmed pneumonic plague cases qualify.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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