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Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability 71%−4
24-hour volume$338
Total volume$32k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0%50%100%71%25 Oct, 23:35 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now71%
1 Nov, 16:51 UTC72%
1 Nov, 14:45 UTC72%
1 Nov, 14:23 UTC72%
1 Nov, 13:17 UTC71%
1 Nov, 12:09 UTC71%
1 Nov, 11:48 UTC72%
1 Nov, 10:43 UTC68%
1 Nov, 10:28 UTC68%
1 Nov, 08:54 UTC68%
1 Nov, 07:52 UTC68%
1 Nov, 07:25 UTC68%
1 Nov, 06:57 UTC68%
1 Nov, 04:36 UTC68%
1 Nov, 04:01 UTC69%
1 Nov, 03:26 UTC70%
1 Nov, 02:50 UTC71%
31 Oct, 22:35 UTC74%
31 Oct, 22:21 UTC74%
31 Oct, 19:24 UTC73%
31 Oct, 18:48 UTC74%
31 Oct, 14:53 UTC75%
31 Oct, 14:24 UTC76%
31 Oct, 13:53 UTC74%
31 Oct, 13:09 UTC75%
31 Oct, 12:40 UTC74%
31 Oct, 12:11 UTC74%
31 Oct, 11:57 UTC73%
31 Oct, 11:28 UTC73%
31 Oct, 10:52 UTC59%
31 Oct, 10:06 UTC57%
31 Oct, 09:59 UTC56%
31 Oct, 09:24 UTC56%
31 Oct, 05:47 UTC66%
31 Oct, 05:26 UTC60%
31 Oct, 04:57 UTC62%
31 Oct, 04:14 UTC60%
31 Oct, 03:45 UTC58%
31 Oct, 03:24 UTC57%
31 Oct, 02:54 UTC59%
31 Oct, 02:26 UTC59%
31 Oct, 01:53 UTC61%
31 Oct, 01:25 UTC62%
31 Oct, 00:57 UTC65%
31 Oct, 00:17 UTC65%
30 Oct, 23:55 UTC63%
30 Oct, 23:23 UTC62%
30 Oct, 22:47 UTC63%
30 Oct, 22:07 UTC62%
30 Oct, 21:53 UTC60%
30 Oct, 21:24 UTC60%
30 Oct, 20:08 UTC67%
30 Oct, 19:53 UTC65%
30 Oct, 19:27 UTC63%
30 Oct, 18:58 UTC63%
30 Oct, 18:18 UTC63%
30 Oct, 15:43 UTC62%
30 Oct, 15:28 UTC61%
30 Oct, 14:58 UTC63%
30 Oct, 14:16 UTC64%
30 Oct, 13:42 UTC61%
30 Oct, 13:20 UTC62%
30 Oct, 10:35 UTC63%
30 Oct, 09:58 UTC62%
30 Oct, 09:29 UTC62%
30 Oct, 08:55 UTC58%
30 Oct, 08:16 UTC58%
30 Oct, 07:55 UTC57%
30 Oct, 07:28 UTC61%
30 Oct, 06:49 UTC60%
30 Oct, 06:21 UTC59%
30 Oct, 05:56 UTC57%
30 Oct, 05:28 UTC59%
30 Oct, 04:43 UTC59%
30 Oct, 04:29 UTC59%
30 Oct, 02:41 UTC65%
30 Oct, 01:35 UTC66%
30 Oct, 01:03 UTC65%
30 Oct, 00:06 UTC56%
29 Oct, 23:40 UTC60%
29 Oct, 23:26 UTC61%
29 Oct, 22:57 UTC61%
29 Oct, 22:24 UTC60%
29 Oct, 21:55 UTC57%
29 Oct, 21:14 UTC59%
29 Oct, 20:53 UTC59%
29 Oct, 20:24 UTC57%
29 Oct, 19:43 UTC60%
29 Oct, 19:29 UTC57%
29 Oct, 18:35 UTC56%
29 Oct, 18:13 UTC56%
29 Oct, 17:46 UTC57%
29 Oct, 17:26 UTC61%
29 Oct, 16:57 UTC58%
29 Oct, 16:15 UTC60%
29 Oct, 15:53 UTC64%
29 Oct, 15:22 UTC70%
29 Oct, 14:40 UTC70%
29 Oct, 13:29 UTC68%
29 Oct, 12:52 UTC69%
29 Oct, 12:11 UTC70%
29 Oct, 11:47 UTC69%
29 Oct, 10:34 UTC62%
29 Oct, 10:04 UTC61%
29 Oct, 09:55 UTC63%
29 Oct, 09:26 UTC72%
29 Oct, 08:13 UTC72%
29 Oct, 07:58 UTC70%
29 Oct, 07:26 UTC59%
29 Oct, 06:58 UTC60%
29 Oct, 06:18 UTC60%
29 Oct, 05:58 UTC61%
29 Oct, 04:56 UTC62%
29 Oct, 04:28 UTC62%
29 Oct, 03:14 UTC59%
29 Oct, 02:53 UTC59%
29 Oct, 02:27 UTC58%
29 Oct, 01:18 UTC64%
29 Oct, 00:55 UTC63%
29 Oct, 00:27 UTC58%
28 Oct, 23:54 UTC63%
28 Oct, 23:26 UTC66%
28 Oct, 22:18 UTC71%
28 Oct, 21:57 UTC52%
28 Oct, 21:22 UTC54%
28 Oct, 20:59 UTC54%
28 Oct, 20:17 UTC47%
28 Oct, 17:38 UTC35%
28 Oct, 16:32 UTC38%
28 Oct, 16:24 UTC37%
28 Oct, 15:55 UTC35%
28 Oct, 15:26 UTC35%
28 Oct, 14:56 UTC35%
28 Oct, 14:14 UTC35%
28 Oct, 13:24 UTC36%
28 Oct, 12:43 UTC35%
28 Oct, 12:29 UTC34%
28 Oct, 11:45 UTC34%
28 Oct, 11:17 UTC36%
28 Oct, 10:56 UTC38%
28 Oct, 10:23 UTC41%
28 Oct, 09:10 UTC48%
28 Oct, 08:36 UTC48%
28 Oct, 08:15 UTC46%
28 Oct, 07:49 UTC45%
28 Oct, 07:29 UTC45%
28 Oct, 06:36 UTC46%
28 Oct, 06:27 UTC45%
28 Oct, 05:33 UTC45%
28 Oct, 05:26 UTC45%
28 Oct, 04:56 UTC45%
28 Oct, 04:17 UTC44%
28 Oct, 03:56 UTC46%
28 Oct, 03:29 UTC46%
28 Oct, 02:58 UTC46%
28 Oct, 02:23 UTC46%
28 Oct, 01:49 UTC46%
28 Oct, 01:28 UTC46%
28 Oct, 00:28 UTC46%
27 Oct, 23:52 UTC45%
27 Oct, 23:19 UTC44%
27 Oct, 22:03 UTC44%
27 Oct, 20:17 UTC43%
27 Oct, 19:55 UTC43%
27 Oct, 18:56 UTC43%
27 Oct, 10:56 UTC43%
27 Oct, 09:51 UTC43%
27 Oct, 09:22 UTC43%
27 Oct, 08:54 UTC43%
27 Oct, 08:20 UTC43%
27 Oct, 07:51 UTC43%
27 Oct, 07:03 UTC44%
27 Oct, 06:56 UTC43%
27 Oct, 04:20 UTC43%
27 Oct, 03:52 UTC43%
27 Oct, 03:26 UTC43%
27 Oct, 02:58 UTC43%
27 Oct, 01:32 UTC44%
27 Oct, 01:25 UTC43%
27 Oct, 00:59 UTC43%
27 Oct, 00:24 UTC43%
26 Oct, 23:17 UTC44%
26 Oct, 22:37 UTC44%
26 Oct, 20:49 UTC48%
26 Oct, 19:37 UTC47%
26 Oct, 19:15 UTC47%
26 Oct, 16:59 UTC44%
26 Oct, 16:09 UTC47%
26 Oct, 15:39 UTC46%
26 Oct, 15:17 UTC47%
26 Oct, 12:47 UTC44%
26 Oct, 12:18 UTC43%
26 Oct, 11:56 UTC43%
26 Oct, 11:16 UTC42%
26 Oct, 09:32 UTC43%
26 Oct, 09:24 UTC43%
26 Oct, 08:30 UTC43%
26 Oct, 08:23 UTC42%
26 Oct, 07:44 UTC42%
26 Oct, 07:24 UTC42%
26 Oct, 04:36 UTC43%
26 Oct, 04:22 UTC44%
26 Oct, 03:27 UTC45%
26 Oct, 02:27 UTC43%
26 Oct, 01:58 UTC43%
26 Oct, 01:27 UTC43%
26 Oct, 00:54 UTC43%
25 Oct, 23:35 UTC45%

Your call. How does this end?

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What counts

Microsoft must hold the third-highest market capitalization among all global companies at the exact moment the stock market closes on December 31, 2026, for the Yes outcome to occur. The No outcome applies if any other company holds that rank at that specific time. Readers often mistake the resolution date or assume the ranking is determined by news reports rather than actual closing market prices.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 71%
  • No 30%

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