Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?
Implied probability 42%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$93k
Liquidity$121k
Resolves1 Jan 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 42% |
| 6 Nov, 02:07 UTC | 42% |
| 6 Nov, 01:38 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 21:04 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Nov, 20:35 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Nov, 20:20 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 19:07 UTC | 41% |
| 5 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 41% |
| 5 Nov, 17:13 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 40% |
| 5 Nov, 16:21 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 15:49 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Nov, 15:25 UTC | 40% |
| 5 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 41% |
| 5 Nov, 13:52 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Nov, 13:23 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 12:52 UTC | 45% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if both countries mutually agree to and maintain a general suspension of direct military engagement for at least ten consecutive days by December 31, 2027. It resolves to No if this condition is not met within the deadline or if the ceasefire ends before the ten-day period concludes.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 42%
- No 59%
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