Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026?
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$183
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 06:30 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 20:32 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 4% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran launches an air or surface-to-surface strike directly at Saudi territory between now and October 31, 2026. The action must be confirmed as originating from Iranian forces, not proxy groups like the Houthis, and it counts even if the munitions are intercepted before impact.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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