Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 9%+1
24-hour volume$21
Total volume$79k
Liquidity$23k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 14:50 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 12:37 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 10:52 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 08:49 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Oct, 05:16 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 7% |
| 15 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 7% |
| 15 Oct, 03:25 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Oct, 02:08 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 9% |
| 14 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 9% |
| 14 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 8% |
| 14 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 8% |
| 14 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 8% |
| 14 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 8% |
| 14 Oct, 20:04 UTC | 8% |
| 14 Oct, 19:43 UTC | 8% |
| 14 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 8% |
| 14 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 8% |
| 14 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 18% |
| 14 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 9% |
| 13 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 03:06 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 02:59 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 01:31 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 23:37 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 09:08 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 08:19 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 11:04 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 05:13 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 04:54 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 14:00 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 10:47 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 04:53 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
For the market to resolve to Yes, Donald Trump must be physically present at a formal, senior-level diplomatic meeting between US and Iran representatives before December 31, 2026. The event must involve authorized officials acting in an official capacity and cannot be limited to technical staff or follow-on talks from previous rounds.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 91%
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