Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?
The market favoured No at 55% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$117k
Total volume$139k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 29% |
| 25 Oct, 20:26 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 52% |
| 25 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 50% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 49% |
| 25 Oct, 13:10 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Oct, 07:18 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 47% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Oct, 15:41 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 47% |
| 24 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 09:57 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 00:13 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 45% |
| 23 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 45% |
| 23 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 48% |
| 23 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 45% |
| 23 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 45% |
| 23 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 47% |
| 22 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 45% |
What counts
Yes resolves if Max Verstappen is officially listed first in the Final Classification published by the FIA after the race concludes. No resolves if any other driver holds that top spot in the same official document. Readers often mistake the podium ceremony order or post-race disqualifications for the final result, but only the initial FIA classification counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →