Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series?

The market favoured No at 95% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 0%

24-hour volume$15k

Total volume$1.8M

Liquidity$0

Resolved31 Oct 2026

How the odds moved · Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series?

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	0%
8 Oct, 08:17 UTC	0%
8 Oct, 05:10 UTC	1%
8 Oct, 04:37 UTC	1%
8 Oct, 04:01 UTC	2%
8 Oct, 03:55 UTC	2%
8 Oct, 03:29 UTC	5%
8 Oct, 02:54 UTC	4%
8 Oct, 02:15 UTC	4%
8 Oct, 01:55 UTC	4%
8 Oct, 01:29 UTC	5%
8 Oct, 00:54 UTC	5%
8 Oct, 00:21 UTC	6%
7 Oct, 23:46 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 23:24 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 22:58 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 22:25 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 21:58 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 21:11 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 20:57 UTC	6%
7 Oct, 20:22 UTC	6%
7 Oct, 19:49 UTC	6%
7 Oct, 19:27 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 18:47 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 18:20 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 17:52 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 17:16 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 16:42 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 15:55 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 15:24 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 14:26 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 13:51 UTC	6%
7 Oct, 13:26 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 09:59 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 09:03 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 08:40 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 07:20 UTC	5%
7 Oct, 00:35 UTC	3%
6 Oct, 20:30 UTC	3%
6 Oct, 17:53 UTC	3%
6 Oct, 12:34 UTC	2%
6 Oct, 11:13 UTC	2%
6 Oct, 08:04 UTC	2%
6 Oct, 06:20 UTC	2%
6 Oct, 05:41 UTC	2%
6 Oct, 05:28 UTC	2%
6 Oct, 04:55 UTC	2%
6 Oct, 04:29 UTC	2%
6 Oct, 03:55 UTC	2%
6 Oct, 02:56 UTC	2%
6 Oct, 01:50 UTC	3%
6 Oct, 01:16 UTC	3%
6 Oct, 00:56 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 19:56 UTC	2%
5 Oct, 18:35 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 17:51 UTC	2%
5 Oct, 16:54 UTC	2%
5 Oct, 16:10 UTC	2%
5 Oct, 15:56 UTC	2%
5 Oct, 15:21 UTC	2%
5 Oct, 11:57 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 10:54 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 10:15 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 09:21 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 07:49 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 06:36 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 05:37 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 05:24 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 04:46 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 04:20 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 03:52 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 03:13 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 02:40 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 02:14 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 01:48 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 01:29 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 00:56 UTC	3%
5 Oct, 00:18 UTC	3%
4 Oct, 23:51 UTC	3%
4 Oct, 23:25 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 22:57 UTC	8%
4 Oct, 22:24 UTC	9%
4 Oct, 21:50 UTC	8%
4 Oct, 21:24 UTC	8%
4 Oct, 20:58 UTC	7%
4 Oct, 20:25 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 19:59 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 19:28 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 18:54 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 17:54 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 17:20 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 16:48 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 16:25 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 15:58 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 15:12 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 14:59 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 14:21 UTC	5%
4 Oct, 13:54 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 13:24 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 12:58 UTC	5%
4 Oct, 12:26 UTC	5%
4 Oct, 11:30 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 10:20 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 09:47 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 09:21 UTC	5%
4 Oct, 08:49 UTC	5%
4 Oct, 08:23 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 07:57 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 07:19 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 06:33 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 06:14 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 05:37 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 05:24 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 04:58 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 04:26 UTC	6%
4 Oct, 03:53 UTC	8%
4 Oct, 03:16 UTC	11%
4 Oct, 02:56 UTC	11%
4 Oct, 02:23 UTC	12%
4 Oct, 01:59 UTC	13%
4 Oct, 01:26 UTC	12%
4 Oct, 00:47 UTC	9%
3 Oct, 23:55 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 23:29 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 22:49 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 21:37 UTC	9%
3 Oct, 20:50 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 20:17 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 19:49 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 19:29 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 18:43 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 17:49 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 17:14 UTC	11%
3 Oct, 16:53 UTC	11%
3 Oct, 16:13 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 15:54 UTC	11%
3 Oct, 15:27 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 14:54 UTC	9%
3 Oct, 14:27 UTC	9%
3 Oct, 13:58 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 12:15 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 11:47 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 11:28 UTC	9%
3 Oct, 08:48 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 08:17 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 07:51 UTC	9%
3 Oct, 06:01 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 05:10 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 04:38 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 04:18 UTC	9%
3 Oct, 03:50 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 03:25 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 02:59 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 02:02 UTC	11%
3 Oct, 01:55 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 01:21 UTC	11%
3 Oct, 00:42 UTC	10%
3 Oct, 00:10 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 23:32 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 23:18 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 22:57 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 22:23 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 21:29 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 20:18 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 19:30 UTC	9%
2 Oct, 19:23 UTC	9%
2 Oct, 18:19 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 17:59 UTC	11%
2 Oct, 17:18 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 16:57 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 16:23 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 15:37 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 15:23 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 13:55 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 13:25 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 12:58 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 12:08 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 11:55 UTC	11%
2 Oct, 11:29 UTC	11%
2 Oct, 10:46 UTC	11%
2 Oct, 10:26 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 09:53 UTC	11%
2 Oct, 08:45 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 08:02 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 07:42 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 07:28 UTC	9%
2 Oct, 06:56 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 06:24 UTC	9%
2 Oct, 05:58 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 05:25 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 04:52 UTC	11%
2 Oct, 04:28 UTC	11%
2 Oct, 03:55 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 03:15 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 02:23 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 01:20 UTC	10%
2 Oct, 00:10 UTC	10%
1 Oct, 23:38 UTC	10%
1 Oct, 23:18 UTC	10%
1 Oct, 22:57 UTC	11%
1 Oct, 22:26 UTC	11%
1 Oct, 21:59 UTC	11%
1 Oct, 21:16 UTC	12%
1 Oct, 20:49 UTC	12%
1 Oct, 20:22 UTC	12%
1 Oct, 19:41 UTC	11%
1 Oct, 19:27 UTC	11%
1 Oct, 18:50 UTC	11%
1 Oct, 18:28 UTC	11%
1 Oct, 17:57 UTC	11%

What counts

The Yes outcome occurs if the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series. The No outcome applies if any other team wins or if the Padres are eliminated from playoff contention. Readers often mistake early playoff victories, like the linked Wild Card series win, for the final resolution.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

Yes 0%
No 100%

View this market on Polymarket →

Embed this market

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Stories on this market

2026 MLB Playoffs Begin with Wild Card Series and Divisional Matchups sports