Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?
Implied probability 4%−3
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$30k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 12:11 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 04:21 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 02:12 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 01:04 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 22:47 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 21:31 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 18:51 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 18:18 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 22:39 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 21:22 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Oct, 14:06 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 09:10 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 07:22 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 04:10 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 02:51 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 23:52 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Oct, 10:27 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 20:26 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 8% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Israel launches an air or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits Greater Beirut by 11:59 PM IDT on October 31. It resolves to No if no such strike occurs, including cases where munitions are intercepted or only threats are announced. Readers often mistake intercepted weapons or debris falling in the area for a qualifying action, but these do not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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