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Will Israel election happen as scheduled?

Resolved: Yes 11d ago

The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$64k
Total volume$240k
Liquidity$0
Resolved28 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
0%50%100%100%20 Oct, 08:30 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
27 Oct, 05:40 UTC100%
27 Oct, 04:13 UTC99%
27 Oct, 02:42 UTC98%
27 Oct, 02:16 UTC98%
27 Oct, 01:32 UTC98%
27 Oct, 00:45 UTC98%
26 Oct, 23:31 UTC98%
26 Oct, 23:24 UTC98%
26 Oct, 22:22 UTC98%
26 Oct, 21:18 UTC98%
26 Oct, 20:12 UTC98%
26 Oct, 19:37 UTC98%
26 Oct, 19:15 UTC98%
26 Oct, 18:48 UTC98%
26 Oct, 18:04 UTC98%
26 Oct, 17:13 UTC98%
26 Oct, 16:59 UTC97%
26 Oct, 16:17 UTC97%
26 Oct, 15:54 UTC97%
26 Oct, 15:09 UTC98%
26 Oct, 14:55 UTC98%
26 Oct, 14:23 UTC97%
26 Oct, 13:55 UTC96%
26 Oct, 13:23 UTC98%
26 Oct, 12:25 UTC97%
26 Oct, 11:56 UTC97%
26 Oct, 11:09 UTC98%
26 Oct, 10:34 UTC98%
26 Oct, 10:07 UTC98%
26 Oct, 09:53 UTC97%
26 Oct, 09:24 UTC97%
26 Oct, 08:58 UTC97%
26 Oct, 08:23 UTC97%
26 Oct, 07:44 UTC98%
26 Oct, 07:24 UTC98%
26 Oct, 06:58 UTC96%
26 Oct, 06:27 UTC97%
26 Oct, 05:53 UTC97%
26 Oct, 03:34 UTC97%
26 Oct, 03:13 UTC97%
26 Oct, 02:41 UTC97%
26 Oct, 02:13 UTC97%
26 Oct, 01:12 UTC97%
26 Oct, 00:54 UTC97%
25 Oct, 23:25 UTC95%
25 Oct, 22:20 UTC94%
25 Oct, 21:57 UTC94%
25 Oct, 21:29 UTC94%
25 Oct, 20:40 UTC94%
25 Oct, 20:12 UTC94%
25 Oct, 19:32 UTC94%
25 Oct, 19:25 UTC94%
25 Oct, 18:57 UTC93%
25 Oct, 17:35 UTC97%
25 Oct, 17:03 UTC97%
25 Oct, 16:42 UTC97%
25 Oct, 16:21 UTC97%
25 Oct, 14:12 UTC97%
25 Oct, 13:56 UTC98%
25 Oct, 13:03 UTC97%
25 Oct, 12:34 UTC98%
25 Oct, 11:56 UTC96%
25 Oct, 10:06 UTC95%
25 Oct, 09:58 UTC95%
25 Oct, 08:53 UTC95%
25 Oct, 08:07 UTC95%
25 Oct, 07:46 UTC95%
25 Oct, 07:11 UTC95%
25 Oct, 06:41 UTC96%
25 Oct, 06:12 UTC95%
25 Oct, 05:51 UTC95%
25 Oct, 05:03 UTC95%
25 Oct, 04:56 UTC95%
25 Oct, 02:14 UTC94%
25 Oct, 01:08 UTC94%
24 Oct, 23:48 UTC94%
24 Oct, 22:58 UTC94%
24 Oct, 22:26 UTC95%
24 Oct, 21:37 UTC95%
24 Oct, 20:51 UTC95%
24 Oct, 20:23 UTC96%
24 Oct, 19:17 UTC95%
24 Oct, 18:50 UTC95%
24 Oct, 18:29 UTC95%
24 Oct, 17:54 UTC96%
24 Oct, 16:47 UTC96%
24 Oct, 16:22 UTC95%
24 Oct, 15:55 UTC95%
24 Oct, 15:08 UTC95%
24 Oct, 14:34 UTC95%
24 Oct, 14:20 UTC94%
24 Oct, 13:52 UTC93%
24 Oct, 13:29 UTC95%
24 Oct, 10:51 UTC96%
24 Oct, 09:36 UTC95%
24 Oct, 09:15 UTC96%
24 Oct, 08:23 UTC95%
24 Oct, 07:17 UTC95%
24 Oct, 06:58 UTC95%
24 Oct, 04:25 UTC95%
24 Oct, 03:30 UTC95%
24 Oct, 01:48 UTC95%
24 Oct, 01:13 UTC95%
24 Oct, 00:52 UTC94%
24 Oct, 00:27 UTC93%
23 Oct, 23:50 UTC93%
23 Oct, 23:10 UTC93%
23 Oct, 22:56 UTC93%
23 Oct, 21:27 UTC93%
23 Oct, 20:49 UTC93%
23 Oct, 20:28 UTC92%
23 Oct, 19:57 UTC89%
23 Oct, 19:27 UTC91%
23 Oct, 18:40 UTC92%
23 Oct, 18:22 UTC92%
23 Oct, 16:43 UTC92%
23 Oct, 16:22 UTC92%
23 Oct, 14:51 UTC93%
23 Oct, 14:24 UTC95%
23 Oct, 13:37 UTC95%
23 Oct, 13:19 UTC94%
23 Oct, 12:29 UTC93%
23 Oct, 11:55 UTC93%
23 Oct, 10:03 UTC92%
23 Oct, 09:55 UTC92%
23 Oct, 09:27 UTC93%
23 Oct, 08:53 UTC93%
23 Oct, 08:21 UTC93%
23 Oct, 07:40 UTC93%
23 Oct, 06:11 UTC92%
23 Oct, 05:53 UTC92%
23 Oct, 04:57 UTC92%
23 Oct, 02:33 UTC92%
23 Oct, 01:18 UTC92%
23 Oct, 00:55 UTC92%
23 Oct, 00:28 UTC92%
22 Oct, 23:55 UTC92%
22 Oct, 23:27 UTC92%
22 Oct, 22:53 UTC92%
22 Oct, 22:25 UTC92%
22 Oct, 21:37 UTC92%
22 Oct, 21:23 UTC92%
22 Oct, 20:55 UTC92%
22 Oct, 20:20 UTC92%
22 Oct, 19:58 UTC92%
22 Oct, 19:23 UTC92%
22 Oct, 18:56 UTC92%
22 Oct, 18:27 UTC92%
22 Oct, 17:45 UTC93%
22 Oct, 17:24 UTC93%
22 Oct, 16:54 UTC93%
22 Oct, 16:26 UTC89%
22 Oct, 15:57 UTC89%
22 Oct, 15:01 UTC90%
22 Oct, 14:54 UTC89%
22 Oct, 14:17 UTC88%
22 Oct, 13:56 UTC88%
22 Oct, 13:04 UTC87%
22 Oct, 12:43 UTC88%
22 Oct, 12:00 UTC87%
22 Oct, 11:45 UTC88%
22 Oct, 11:22 UTC87%
22 Oct, 10:53 UTC88%
22 Oct, 10:09 UTC88%
22 Oct, 09:47 UTC89%
22 Oct, 09:18 UTC90%
22 Oct, 08:53 UTC91%
22 Oct, 08:29 UTC90%
22 Oct, 07:54 UTC89%
22 Oct, 07:22 UTC89%
22 Oct, 06:39 UTC90%
22 Oct, 06:08 UTC91%
22 Oct, 05:53 UTC91%
22 Oct, 05:25 UTC91%
22 Oct, 04:55 UTC90%
22 Oct, 04:27 UTC91%
22 Oct, 03:38 UTC91%
22 Oct, 03:16 UTC91%
22 Oct, 02:54 UTC91%
22 Oct, 02:26 UTC91%
22 Oct, 01:51 UTC89%
22 Oct, 01:29 UTC89%
22 Oct, 00:59 UTC89%
22 Oct, 00:10 UTC89%
21 Oct, 23:42 UTC89%
21 Oct, 23:28 UTC88%
21 Oct, 22:53 UTC88%
21 Oct, 22:24 UTC89%
21 Oct, 21:55 UTC92%
21 Oct, 21:12 UTC92%
21 Oct, 20:42 UTC92%
21 Oct, 20:27 UTC91%
21 Oct, 19:54 UTC94%
21 Oct, 19:24 UTC93%
21 Oct, 18:12 UTC93%
21 Oct, 16:58 UTC93%
21 Oct, 16:29 UTC93%
21 Oct, 14:47 UTC93%
21 Oct, 14:05 UTC93%
21 Oct, 13:40 UTC93%
21 Oct, 13:04 UTC94%
21 Oct, 12:56 UTC94%
21 Oct, 12:07 UTC94%
21 Oct, 11:53 UTC94%
21 Oct, 11:24 UTC94%
21 Oct, 10:54 UTC94%
21 Oct, 10:24 UTC94%
21 Oct, 09:19 UTC94%
21 Oct, 08:58 UTC94%
21 Oct, 08:24 UTC94%
21 Oct, 06:09 UTC94%
21 Oct, 04:26 UTC94%
21 Oct, 03:57 UTC93%
21 Oct, 03:02 UTC93%
21 Oct, 02:48 UTC93%
21 Oct, 01:31 UTC93%
21 Oct, 00:05 UTC93%
20 Oct, 23:57 UTC93%
20 Oct, 22:52 UTC92%
20 Oct, 22:17 UTC92%
20 Oct, 21:49 UTC91%
20 Oct, 21:20 UTC91%
20 Oct, 20:58 UTC91%
20 Oct, 20:24 UTC90%
20 Oct, 19:55 UTC90%
20 Oct, 19:21 UTC90%
20 Oct, 18:59 UTC90%
20 Oct, 18:24 UTC92%
20 Oct, 16:27 UTC93%
20 Oct, 15:23 UTC93%
20 Oct, 14:10 UTC93%
20 Oct, 13:45 UTC93%
20 Oct, 13:29 UTC93%
20 Oct, 12:53 UTC93%
20 Oct, 11:36 UTC93%
20 Oct, 11:19 UTC93%
20 Oct, 08:30 UTC93%

What counts

The market resolves to "Yes" if nationwide general voting for Israel's 26th Knesset takes place on October 27, 2026. It resolves to "No" if that nationwide voting happens before that date or does not occur by the end of October 27, 2026. Readers often mistakenly believe that early or special voting (like for soldiers or citizens abroad) determines the outcome, but only the date of general election-day voting counts.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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