Will England win on 2026-09-26?
The market favoured No at 71% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$1.6M
Total volume$1.7M
Liquidity$732k
Resolved26 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Sept, 17:05 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Sept, 16:03 UTC | 25% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 24% |
| 26 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 24% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 30% |
| 25 Sept, 04:35 UTC | 31% |
| 24 Sept, 20:52 UTC | 32% |
| 24 Sept, 13:32 UTC | 33% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if England wins the match scheduled for September 26, 2026, based on the result within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. It resolves to No if England does not win, including draws or losses, or if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up match.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →