Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
Implied probability 96%+6
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$24k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves28 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 09:14 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 89% |
| 2 Oct, 12:37 UTC | 91% |
| 2 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 91% |
| 1 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 93% |
| 30 Sept, 06:20 UTC | 94% |
| 29 Sept, 08:27 UTC | 94% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 93% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 94% |
| 28 Sept, 11:36 UTC | 94% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Likud wins fewer than 32 seats in the October 27, 2026 election, counting any seats from joint lists or merged parties. It resolves to No if Likud wins 32 or more seats, or if results are not known by June 30, 2027. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the final resolution cutoff in June 2027.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 96%
- No 5%
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