Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)
The market favoured Jaguars at 50% a day out, but Texans won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$601k
Total volume$620k
Liquidity$709k
Resolved18 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 18 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 0% |
| 18 Oct, 12:55 UTC | 50% |
| 18 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 51% |
| 18 Oct, 04:04 UTC | 52% |
| 17 Oct, 21:32 UTC | 51% |
| 17 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 52% |
| 17 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 51% |
| 16 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 52% |
What counts
The Jaguars outcome occurs if they win by three points or more. The Texans outcome applies if they win or if the Jaguars win by fewer than three points. Readers often mistake the point spread for a requirement to cover the spread rather than simply winning by that margin.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Jaguars 0%
- Texans 100%
View this market on Polymarket →