Italy leading at halftime?
The market favoured Yes at 51% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$28k
Total volume$28k
Liquidity$48k
Resolved5 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 23:02 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 49% |
| 5 Oct, 17:51 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 17:51 UTC | 51% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Italy leads at any point during the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. It resolves to No if Italy does not lead within that specific timeframe or if the match is canceled without a make-up game. Readers often mistake the final match winner for the deciding factor, but only the scoreline at halftime matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →