Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 92% |
| 7 Nov, 07:21 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Nov, 05:37 UTC | 93% |
| 7 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 93% |
| 7 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 93% |
| 7 Nov, 00:44 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 23:11 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 21:38 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 21:08 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 20:53 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 19:11 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 12:37 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 12:15 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 10:27 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 00:27 UTC | 94% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 89% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if SpaceX Starship Flight 15 successfully lifts off from its pad by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome depends solely on the launch event itself; any explosion or anomaly after liftoff does not change the result. Readers often mistakenly believe that a post-launch failure counts as a No, but only the successful launch matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 92%
- No 8%
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